A new poll from Quantus Insights shows former NFL reporter Michele Tafoya with a strong lead in the Republican primary race for Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat. The seat became available after Tina Smith announced she would not seek re-election.
The survey, conducted May 6–8 among 663 likely Republican primary voters, found Tafoya receiving 51.8% support on the initial ballot. About 27.3% of respondents said they remained undecided, leaving room for movement as the campaign develops ahead of the primary election.
Former NBA player Royce White placed second in the poll with 8.9% support. Other Republican candidates included Adam Schwarze at 4.1% and Tom Weiler at 1.6%, while 6.3% of voters said they preferred another potential Republican candidate not listed in the survey.
Tafoya, known for her years as a sideline reporter on Sunday Night Football, entered the race with significant name recognition. White previously ran as the Republican nominee against Amy Klobuchar in 2024.
Despite the early Republican polling advantage for Tafoya, political analysts continue to view Minnesota as leaning Democratic in statewide federal elections. Major forecasting groups have rated the race as favorable to Democrats based on recent voting trends and the state’s political landscape.
On the Democratic side, the primary contest includes Angie Craig and Peggy Flanagan as the leading contenders. Recent polling has shown Flanagan holding an early edge, though a sizable number of Democratic voters also remain undecided heading into the 2026 election cycle.