New Minnesota Senate Poll Shows Flanagan Leading Tafoya by Less Than Four Points
A new poll of Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate race shows Democrat Peggy Flanagan holding a narrow lead over Republican Michele Tafoya, putting the contest within a few percentage points as the November election approaches.
The Quantus Insights survey found Flanagan receiving 48.2% support among likely voters, compared with 44.4% for Tafoya. Another 4.3% were undecided. The survey was conducted Sept. 8–10 among 720 likely voters and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
When voters who lean toward one of the candidates are included, Flanagan’s advantage shifts to 48.9% to 45.4%, according to Quantus.
The numbers provide a snapshot of a competitive race for the Senate seat being vacated by Democratic Sen. Tina Smith, who announced in 2025 that she would not seek reelection.
Flanagan Holds a Narrow Edge in the Latest Poll
The Quantus results place Flanagan ahead, but the relatively small gap illustrates how closely divided the surveyed electorate is.
The poll also found that most voters who currently support one of the candidates consider their choice settled. Quantus reported that 88.6% of candidate supporters said they had definitely made up their minds.
That leaves a smaller group of voters who could potentially change their preference before Election Day, although polling does not establish how those voters will ultimately behave.
The latest survey is also only one measurement of the race. RealClearPolitics’ current polling page lists an average showing Flanagan at 46.3% and Tafoya at 42.0%, a 4.3-point difference, based on the polls included in its average.
Gender Divide Emerges in the Survey
The Quantus poll found a significant difference in candidate support by gender.
Among women surveyed, Flanagan led Tafoya 54% to 40%.
Tafoya held the advantage among men, leading 50% to 41%.
Such demographic splits are common features of election polling, but individual subgroup numbers can also carry greater uncertainty than the overall result, particularly when the number of respondents in a particular subgroup is smaller.
Age Groups Are Also Divided
Age was another prominent dividing line in the Quantus results.
Flanagan’s strongest showing came among voters ages 30 to 44, where she led Tafoya 63% to 34%.
The pattern changed among voters ages 45 to 64. Tafoya led that group 54% to 38%.
Tafoya also held a narrow advantage among voters 65 and older, according to the survey.
The results illustrate how the overall statewide numbers are being produced by different coalitions of voters rather than by a uniform preference across Minnesota’s electorate.
Urban and Rural Voters Show Different Preferences
Geography produced another substantial division in the poll.
Flanagan held a large advantage among urban voters, while Tafoya had a significant lead among rural voters.
That distinction is particularly relevant in Minnesota, where the Democratic vote has historically been concentrated in the state’s larger population centers while Republicans have generally performed more strongly in many rural areas.
The statewide result ultimately depends on turnout and the balance between those different parts of the electorate, making the geographic breakdown an important component of the broader race.
Tafoya Is Making Fraud and Government Accountability Central Issues
Tafoya, a former NFL sideline reporter, has sought to make government accountability and Minnesota’s public-assistance fraud scandals major issues in the campaign.
Her argument centers on whether state officials adequately protected taxpayer-funded programs and responded to allegations of widespread fraud.
Recent national coverage has also highlighted Tafoya’s effort to distinguish herself from some other Republicans on issues including abortion while maintaining a focus on government oversight and public safety.
Flanagan, meanwhile, is running as a Democrat with extensive experience in Minnesota state government. She has served as lieutenant governor throughout Gov. Tim Walz’s administration.
That record gives Republicans an opportunity to tie her campaign to the broader performance of the Walz administration, while Flanagan can point to her own experience and record as she seeks to hold the seat for Democrats.
Both Parties Have Completed Their Primaries
The general-election matchup was finalized Aug. 11.
Flanagan won the Democratic-Farmer-Labor primary over U.S. Rep. Angie Craig and other candidates. Tafoya won the Republican nomination in a crowded field.
Minnesota’s secretary of state’s election results show Tafoya receiving 52.07% of the Republican primary vote.
Minnesota Public Radio reported after the primary that Flanagan prevailed over Craig in the Democratic contest, while Tafoya emerged as the Republican nominee.
The two now face each other in the Nov. 3 general election for Minnesota’s open Senate seat.
The Race Is Taking Place in a Historically Democratic State
The contest is unfolding in a state where Republicans have not recently won a U.S. Senate election, adding importance to the parties’ efforts to build statewide coalitions.
At the same time, the latest polling does not show a decisive advantage large enough to eliminate uncertainty. The Quantus survey has Flanagan ahead by 3.8 percentage points, while its margin of error is 4.2 points.
That means the poll should be viewed as a snapshot of voter preferences during the period when interviews were conducted, rather than as a prediction of the eventual result.
Several national race-rating organizations have categorized the contest as favoring Democrats, but those ratings are assessments of the overall political environment and are separate from the numerical results of individual polls.
Candidate Favorability Is Relatively Close
Quantus also measured how voters view the two candidates personally.
Flanagan had a 50% favorable rating and a 45.9% unfavorable rating.
Tafoya’s numbers were considerably more evenly divided, with 42.4% viewing her favorably and 42% unfavorably.
The figures suggest that both candidates are entering the general election with a substantial portion of the electorate already holding an opinion about them, although favorability ratings themselves do not determine how voters will ultimately cast their ballots.
Name Recognition Could Remain a Factor
Tafoya entered the race with widespread name recognition from her years as a national sports broadcaster, but her political profile is considerably newer than Flanagan’s.
The campaign is therefore unfolding partly as an effort by both candidates to define their records and priorities for voters who may know them less well as political figures.
For Tafoya, that includes emphasizing government accountability and criticism of the state’s handling of fraud. For Flanagan, it includes defending her record in state government while making the case for her own agenda in Washington.
The Quantus findings indicate that many voters have already settled on a candidate, but the remaining undecided electorate could still receive significant attention from both campaigns.
What the Poll Shows — and What It Does Not
The latest Quantus survey shows Flanagan leading Tafoya 48.2% to 44.4%, with 4.3% undecided. Including leaners produces a 48.9% to 45.4% split.
But the poll’s ±4.2-point margin of error is important context. Polling results can vary from survey to survey because of sampling, methodology, turnout assumptions and changes in voter preferences.
The survey also does not determine the eventual outcome of the election.
What it does show is that the Minnesota Senate race remains closely contested in the latest available Quantus snapshot, with notable differences in support by gender, age and geography.
With the primary contests complete and the general-election campaign underway, both Flanagan and Tafoya now face the task of consolidating their respective coalitions while competing for the voters who remain undecided or open to changing their minds.
Benjamin Harris is a RapidReports front page contributor and editor,proud father of four.
