Early voting has begun in Texas for the Republican primary for U.S. Senate, and what was once expected to be a straightforward race has become increasingly competitive. Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn is seeking a fifth term but faces strong challenges from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt. With no candidate polling above 50 percent, analysts anticipate the March 3 primary could move to a May 26 runoff.
Recent polling averages from Decision Desk HQ show Paxton narrowly leading Cornyn, with Hunt trailing but drawing enough support to prevent any candidate from securing a majority outright. Republican strategists note that while Texas has leaned reliably Republican in recent federal elections, internal party divisions could shape the outcome of both the primary and the general election.
Some GOP officials argue that Cornyn’s long tenure and statewide track record position him as a stronger general election candidate. The National Republican Senatorial Committee has reportedly circulated messaging suggesting that maintaining party unity will be important in a closely contested Senate cycle. Others believe Paxton’s appeal to conservative voters could energize turnout if he becomes the nominee.
On the Democratic side, Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico are competing for their party’s nomination. Political observers say Democrats are monitoring the Republican primary closely, particularly if it results in a runoff that could extend campaign spending and intensify party divisions.
President Donald Trump has not yet endorsed a candidate in the race, stating publicly that he has positive relationships with all three Republican contenders. Analysts suggest that an endorsement could significantly influence the outcome. With early voting underway and no clear frontrunner, the contest is shaping up as one of the most closely watched Senate primaries in the country.