American drivers are bracing for sustained high gas prices, even if the U.S. and Iran reach a peace agreement and work quickly to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, energy experts say.
“It all depends on when tankers start moving through the Strait of Hormuz,” said Patrick De Haan, petroleum analyst at GasBuddy. “Even if that happens, it will be a long, multi-month to multi-year process before prices fully normalize.”
Across the U.S., the average price for a gallon of regular gasoline on Tuesday was $4.29, down from over $4.50 in May, according to AAA. Before the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran at the end of February, gas averaged $2.98 per gallon.
De Haan predicts pre-war fuel prices may not return until mid-to-late 2027, highlighting the long-term impact of the geopolitical crisis.
Strait of Hormuz Remains Key to Global Oil
The Strait of Hormuz, connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, is a critical shipping lane, handling roughly 20% of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas.
Although oil prices could drop immediately if a peace deal is announced, gas prices are expected to fall much more slowly. Tankers will need time to resume operations, and crude oil must be delivered to refineries to produce gasoline, diesel, and other energy products.
“Even if Brent crude prices fall overnight due to positive news, it will take time for tanker flows and refinery operations to recover,” said Jennifer Li, senior geopolitical analyst at Rystad Energy.
Why Gasoline Prices Lag Behind Crude Oil
Crude oil accounts for approximately 57% of the cost of a gallon of gas in the U.S., according to the Energy Information Administration. The remainder comes from refining, taxes, distribution, and marketing costs.
Richard Joswick, executive director at S&P Global Energy, explained, “When a deal is announced, crude prices may drop instantly, but gasoline won’t immediately reflect that because supplies are still tight.”
Global oil inventories are currently low and will require time to rebuild, keeping gas prices elevated for the foreseeable future.
The Long Road to Lower Prices
Once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, oil-producing nations will need several weeks to restart production and return to typical output levels. De Haan compared the process to “filling an Olympic-size swimming pool with a garden hose.”
“Most of the oil coming through the strait will go directly to meet immediate demand. It will take months for supplies to fully replenish,” he said. “This is a long-haul situation.”
Inflation and Household Impact
U.S. inflation hit an annual rate of 3.8% in April, the highest since May 2023, driven largely by energy costs, according to the Consumer Price Index.
Since the Iran conflict began, American households have spent an estimated $401 more on gas and diesel, according to Brown University researchers.
Social Security’s Biggest 2026 Rule Change Just Handed 3 Million Retirees Thousands in Back Pay
The Quiet Windfall Hiding in Public Sector Pensions Millions of retired public workers are seeing larger Social Security payments in 2026 thanks to one of the most significant retirement policy changes in decades. The update stems from the full implementation of the Social Security Fairness Act, a law that eliminated two long-standing provisions that had reduced benefits for many teachers, firefighters, police officers, postal workers, and other public-sector employees. For years, retirees who received pensions from jobs that did not pay into Social Security often saw their federal retirement benefits reduced. Many affected workers planned their retirement finances around those lower payments. Now, eligible retirees are receiving retroactive payments and larger monthly checks, creating a substantial financial boost for millions of households.
The change impacts an estimated 3 million Americans and includes back payments dating to January 2024. Some beneficiaries have already reported receiving unexpected deposits followed by notices showing higher monthly benefit amounts. Others may still be waiting for adjustments as records continue to be reviewed. Retirement experts say the new law represents one of the largest benefit expansions for public-sector retirees in recent history. Individuals who previously delayed filing for certain Social Security benefits because of expected reductions may also want to review their eligibility under the updated rules. For retirees and surviving spouses who worked in public-sector positions, the law could significantly increase retirement income over the coming years. Those who believe they may qualify are encouraged to review their records and contact the Social Security Administration if they have not received updated information. What WEP and GPO Did, and Why Repeal Matters The two provisions eliminated by the Social Security Fairness Act were known as the Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and the Government Pension Offset (GPO). Both were designed decades ago to adjust Social Security benefits for individuals receiving pensions from employment not covered by Social Security taxes. Under WEP, workers who earned pensions from non-covered jobs often received reduced Social Security retirement benefits based on other employment. GPO affected spousal and survivor benefits, reducing or eliminating payments for many retirees whose spouses had paid into the Social Security system. Supporters of the repeal argued that the provisions unfairly penalized public servants who spent years working in education, public safety, and government service. Critics maintained that the rules created confusion and reduced benefits for retirees who had contributed to Social Security through other jobs during their careers. With the repeal now in effect, eligible retirees may receive retroactive payments covering previously reduced benefits. In addition, many are seeing permanent increases in their monthly Social Security checks moving forward. Experts note that some individuals who never applied for spousal or survivor benefits because they expected them to be reduced should consider reviewing their eligibility. The new rules may create opportunities that were unavailable under the previous system. The Social Security Administration continues processing updates, and retirees are encouraged to verify that their records accurately reflect their work history and pension status. The Other 2026 Updates That Add Up While the Social Security Fairness Act has received significant attention, several other changes are also affecting retirees in 2026. The annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) increased benefits by 2.8% beginning in January, providing additional monthly income for beneficiaries across the country. Although modest compared to some recent years, the adjustment helps offset rising living expenses. The taxable wage base also increased, meaning higher-income workers pay Social Security taxes on a larger portion of their earnings. In addition, earnings limits for retirees who have not yet reached full retirement age were adjusted upward. Maximum retirement benefits have also increased, reinforcing the long-standing financial advantage of delaying benefits beyond full retirement age for those who are able to do so. Meanwhile, policymakers continue monitoring the long-term financial outlook for Social Security as lawmakers debate potential solutions to future funding challenges. Together, these updates make 2026 an important year for retirement planning and benefit management. What to Do With This Anyone who has worked in public-sector employment or receives a government pension should review how the Social Security Fairness Act may affect their benefits. This is especially important for retirees who previously experienced reductions under WEP or GPO. Beneficiaries should log into their Social Security accounts, review recent payment records, and verify whether adjustments have already been made. In some cases, additional documentation or follow-up may be necessary. Surviving spouses, divorced spouses, and retirees who were previously told they were ineligible for certain benefits may wish to reassess their eligibility under the updated law. Financial advisors also recommend incorporating any new benefit amounts into broader retirement planning strategies, including budgeting, investment decisions, and long-term income planning. While larger monthly benefits can improve retirement security, experts caution that retirees should continue maintaining diversified income sources whenever possible. For millions of Americans, however, the Social Security Fairness Act represents a meaningful change that could provide additional financial stability for years to come. Released: The Ultimate Guide To Retirement Income Many investors spend decades building retirement savings but devote far less time to planning how those assets will generate dependable income after they stop working. Financial professionals often emphasize that the transition from accumulating wealth to creating sustainable retirement income is one of the most important stages of financial planning. Understanding Social Security benefits, pension income, investment withdrawals, and healthcare expenses can play a major role in long-term financial success. As retirement rules continue to evolve, staying informed about policy changes and benefit updates can help retirees make more confident decisions about their financial future. For individuals approaching retirement or already receiving benefits, developing a comprehensive income strategy remains one of the most valuable steps they can take. With major Social Security changes now taking effect, many retirees are finding new opportunities to strengthen their financial outlook and maximize available benefits. Disclosure: The opinions, analyses, and evaluations here are ours and not provided by any bank, financial institution, or any other company. They have not reviewed, approved or endorsed our content.
