JD Vance Trails Several Democrats in Early 2028 Polling, While AOC Matchup Remains Close
Vice President JD Vance is already being tested against several potential Democratic presidential contenders in early hypothetical 2028 matchups, with recent polling showing a mixed picture more than two years before the election.
An August Emerson College national poll tested Vance against former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, former Vice President Kamala Harris and New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
The results showed Buttigieg and Ossoff each holding five-point advantages over Vance, while Harris led Vance by four points and Newsom by five. Ocasio-Cortez was the exception, with Vance holding a two-point advantage in the Emerson survey.
Other polling compiled since then has produced different results, underscoring how unsettled the 2028 landscape remains.
Buttigieg and Ossoff Show Leads in Emerson Poll
The Emerson survey, conducted August 16-17 among 1,000 likely voters, found:
- Pete Buttigieg: 49%
- JD Vance: 44%
In the Ossoff matchup:
- Jon Ossoff: 49%
- JD Vance: 44%
The survey’s credibility interval was plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Those results represent hypothetical general-election ballot tests rather than actual campaign results. Neither Buttigieg nor Ossoff has formally entered the 2028 presidential race.
Ossoff is currently running for reelection to the U.S. Senate in Georgia, while Buttigieg remains a prominent Democratic figure following his tenure as transportation secretary.
Vance Holds a Narrow Edge Over Ocasio-Cortez in Emerson
The closest of the Emerson matchups involving Vance and the candidates highlighted in the Newsweek report was the contest with Ocasio-Cortez.
Emerson’s August survey showed:
- JD Vance: 46%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 44%
That two-point difference falls within the poll’s credibility interval, meaning the survey does not establish a statistically clear difference between the two candidates.
Another polling organization has produced a different result. RealClearPolling lists a late-August Quantus Insights survey showing Vance at 45% and Ocasio-Cortez at 42%.
An earlier December survey from The Argument/Verasight produced a different result, with Ocasio-Cortez narrowly ahead. The variation illustrates how much these early hypothetical matchups can change depending on the poll, timing and methodology.
A Broader Polling Average Produces Different Numbers
Newsweek’s report also cites a Race to the WH polling average.
That compilation currently places Buttigieg and Ossoff ahead of Vance by roughly four points in hypothetical national matchups, while Harris and Newsom also hold leads. Ocasio-Cortez is the only Democrat among those five candidates shown as trailing Vance in that particular average.
Polling averages can provide additional context, but they should not be confused with forecasts of the eventual election. The 2028 field is not finalized, and many of the names being tested have not declared presidential campaigns.
Vance’s Republican Primary Position Is Also Being Tested
Vance is simultaneously appearing in Republican primary polling alongside Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other potential contenders.
Emerson’s August survey found Vance ahead of Rubio in a hypothetical Republican primary matchup, although the margin was much narrower than earlier in the year.
The same survey also tested Rubio and Vance separately against Democratic candidates. Buttigieg led both Republicans by five points in the corresponding general-election tests.
Rubio has previously said that if Vance runs for president, he would support him, while Vance has indicated that he expects to discuss his political future after the 2026 midterm elections.
Early Numbers Have Changed Since 2025
The current polling looks different from some of the earliest hypothetical tests.
For example, RealClearPolling’s compilation shows an Emerson survey from July 2025 in which Vance led Buttigieg 44% to 43%. By August 2026, the Emerson result had reversed to a 49%-44% Buttigieg advantage.
The same database also shows earlier hypothetical contests involving Vance and Newsom, Harris and Ocasio-Cortez producing different margins over time.
These shifts demonstrate why individual early polls should be treated as snapshots rather than measurements of where the 2028 election will ultimately stand.
The Democratic Field Remains Open
The potential Democratic field includes politicians with substantially different political profiles and levels of national exposure.
Buttigieg has already run for president once, competing in the 2020 Democratic primary before serving in the Biden administration.
Ossoff, 39, has emerged as a nationally visible Democratic senator and is being discussed as a possible 2028 contender, although his immediate political focus is his Senate race.
Ocasio-Cortez remains one of the Democratic Party’s most nationally recognizable progressive figures. Harris, who previously served as vice president and was the Democratic presidential nominee in 2024, is also included in several early 2028 surveys.
Newsom has likewise been repeatedly tested in hypothetical matchups.
No final Democratic field has been established.
What the Polls Actually Show
The available polling shows that Vance’s hypothetical matchups vary considerably depending on the Democratic candidate and the survey.
In the August Emerson poll, Vance trailed Buttigieg and Ossoff by five points, trailed Harris by four and trailed Newsom by five, while holding a two-point edge over Ocasio-Cortez.
Other surveys and polling compilations produce somewhat different margins, particularly in the Vance-Ocasio-Cortez matchup.
These results do not establish who will win the 2028 presidential election. They measure hypothetical preferences among voters more than two years before the election, at a time when the candidates, campaign organizations, issues and political environment can all change substantially.
Why the 2028 Numbers Remain Uncertain
Several major variables remain unresolved.
The 2026 midterm elections have not yet occurred, and their results could alter the political environment heading into 2028. Neither party has completed its presidential nomination process, and many potential candidates have not announced campaigns.
Voters’ opinions could also change as candidates become better known, campaigns begin spending money on advertising and the policy record of the Trump administration develops further.
For those reasons, the latest polls are most useful as an indication of current hypothetical voter preferences, not as predictions of the eventual 2028 result.
Benjamin Harris is a RapidReports front page contributor and editor,proud father of four.
