California Gubernatorial Primary Poll: Steve Hilton Leads a Crowded Field

A recent Emerson College poll has shaken up California’s gubernatorial race, showing Republican Steve Hilton leading a crowded primary field in a contest that could reshape the state’s political landscape. With California’s unique “top-two” primary system, every vote counts, and this survey provides a first glimpse of how candidates are faring ahead of the November election.

Steve Hilton Surges to the Top

The Emerson College poll, conducted February 13–14 among 1,000 likely voters, reveals Hilton leading with 17% support. The former host of The Next Revolution and one-time adviser to former UK Prime Minister David Cameron has gained traction by focusing on issues that resonate with Californians: affordable housing, homelessness, and government reform.

Hilton’s campaign emphasizes practical solutions for California’s cost-of-living crisis. His messaging on housing affordability, in particular, has struck a chord with voters frustrated by skyrocketing rent prices and housing shortages across the state.

“California families deserve a governor who prioritizes affordability and practical solutions over politics,” Hilton said in a recent campaign event.

Closely Contested Field Among Democrats

Following Hilton in the poll is Democrat Eric Swalwell at 14%, tied with former Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, who is running as a Republican. Swalwell, a former congressman known for his vocal stance on national security and progressive policies, faces a tough battle in a highly competitive Democratic field.

Other notable Democratic candidates include:

Katie Porter – 10% support. The former U.S. Representative and consumer advocate has focused on economic fairness and government accountability.
Tom Steyer – 9% support. The investor and philanthropist emphasizes climate change and economic reforms.
Xavier Becerra, Matt Mahan, and Antonio Villaraigosa – polling lower individually but collectively contributing to a fragmented Democratic vote.

21% of voters remain undecided, highlighting the fluid nature of the race and the potential for last-minute shifts before the June primary.

Understanding California’s “Top-Two” Primary System

California’s nonpartisan top-two primary system, established under Proposition 14 in 2010, allows all candidates to appear on the same ballot, regardless of party. The two candidates receiving the most votes move on to the general election in November, which can sometimes result in two candidates from the same party facing each other.

This system adds complexity to California races, as candidates must appeal not only to their base but also to voters from other parties. For Hilton, this creates both opportunities and challenges. While his Republican support is strong, he must also attract independent and moderate voters to secure a spot in the top two.

What the Poll Means for November

Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball emphasized the significance of the survey. “With multiple Democrats splitting the vote, the top-two system can create surprising outcomes,” Kimball explained. “Even a candidate with a smaller base could advance if their support is consolidated effectively.”

Hilton’s 17% lead, while modest, positions him favorably in a primary where voter turnout is historically low and highly motivated bases can swing results. If Democrats continue to divide support among several candidates, it increases Hilton’s chances of securing one of the two general election spots.

Steve Hilton’s Political Background

Steve Hilton brings a unique international perspective to California politics. Before entering American electoral politics, Hilton served as a senior adviser to former UK Prime Minister David Cameron, helping shape economic and political strategies.

In the U.S., Hilton gained prominence as the host of The Next Revolution, a show where he advocated for populist, pro-economic growth policies. His experience in both media and politics gives him a distinct edge in messaging and connecting with voters across diverse demographics.

Key Issues Driving the Race

Several issues are shaping the 2026 California gubernatorial primary, including:

1. Housing Affordability and Homelessness

Skyrocketing housing costs remain the top concern for voters. Hilton’s proposals to streamline development approvals and incentivize affordable housing have resonated with residents frustrated by chronic housing shortages.

2. Economic Recovery and Inflation

California continues to recover from economic challenges, including inflation and high energy costs. Candidates are debating policies ranging from tax relief to state spending reform, seeking to appeal to both urban and rural voters.

3. Climate Change and Environmental Policy

While Democrats like Steyer and Porter emphasize climate initiatives, Hilton is advocating for balanced environmental policies that promote energy innovation without imposing undue costs on residents.

4. Education and Public Safety

Voters are focused on school quality, teacher support, and public safety measures, particularly in urban areas. Hilton’s background in local governance allows him to position himself as a pragmatic problem solver.

The Role of Undecided Voters

With over one-fifth of voters undecided, the race remains highly unpredictable. Political analysts note that late-breaking campaign strategies, debates, and grassroots mobilization will be critical in determining which candidates advance to the general election.

“In California, the primary isn’t just about who has the most support today,” said one political strategist. “It’s about who can energize supporters, win over undecideds, and get them to the polls.”

Why This Race Matters Nationally

California, the most populous state in the U.S., often sets trends that influence national politics. A Republican like Hilton performing strongly in a traditionally Democratic stronghold sends shockwaves through political circles and could signal broader shifts in voter sentiment ahead of the 2026 midterms.

The results also highlight how nonpartisan systems can disrupt traditional party expectations, giving rise to unexpected alliances and potential strategic voting among Californians.

Predictions and Next Steps

Analysts expect the primary vote in June to be closely contested. Factors that could influence the outcome include:

Voter turnout: Primaries often see low participation, so mobilization efforts are key.
Media coverage: Strong messaging through traditional media and social platforms can amplify a candidate’s reach.
Debates and town halls: Public forums give candidates like Hilton opportunities to showcase solutions and contrast themselves with opponents.

As campaigns ramp up in the coming months, polling numbers may shift dramatically. Candidates will likely focus on building momentum in key counties, particularly Los Angeles, Orange, and San Diego, where large populations can sway results.

Final Thoughts

The 2026 California gubernatorial primary is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in recent memory. Republican Steve Hilton currently leads the pack, but with multiple Democratic contenders and a significant portion of undecided voters, the race remains far from decided.

For voters, the primary represents an opportunity to weigh candidates on pragmatic solutions, leadership experience, and the ability to address California’s pressing challenges. For political observers, Hilton’s surge illustrates the impact of the top-two system and the potential for unconventional outcomes.