Minnesota Senate Race Tightens as Flanagan and Tafoya Remain Virtually Even
Minnesota’s 2026 Senate race remains closely divided, with recent polling showing Democrat Peggy Flanagan and Republican Michele Tafoya separated by little more than the margin of error.
A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 9-14 among 654 likely voters found the two candidates tied at 42% each. The result represents a substantially tighter contest than an earlier SurveyUSA survey that showed Flanagan with a five-point advantage.
A separate poll conducted immediately afterward also found little separation between the candidates. The co/efficient survey of 833 likely voters, conducted Sept. 14-15, put Flanagan at 43% and Tafoya at 42%, with 11% undecided. The poll’s margin of error was ±3.38 percentage points.
Recent Polls Show a Narrow Contest
The two September surveys provide similar evidence that the Senate contest is competitive.
| Poll | Field dates | Flanagan | Tafoya | Undecided/Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | Sept. 9-14 | 42% | 42% | Other candidates |
| co/efficient | Sept. 14-15 | 43% | 42% | 11% undecided |
The co/efficient survey’s one-point difference is well within its stated margin of error. The same is true of the SurveyUSA result, which places the candidates exactly even.
These surveys measure voter preferences during specific periods and should not be interpreted as predictions of the November result.
The Latest Co/efficient Poll
The co/efficient survey found Flanagan with 43% support and Tafoya with 42%. Libertarian Rebecca Whiting received 2%, while independent candidate Marisa Simonetti received 2%. Another 11% remained undecided.
Flanagan’s favorable rating was 33%, compared with 42% unfavorable. Tafoya was viewed favorably by 36% and unfavorably by 32%, while significant shares of voters said they were unsure or had not heard enough about either candidate to form an opinion.
The poll was conducted through mobile text responses and live landline interviews and was weighted by factors including age, gender, race, education, congressional district and party affiliation.
Why the Race Has Tightened in Recent Polling
The latest numbers come after several surveys showed Flanagan ahead but generally within a relatively narrow range.
A Quantus Insights survey conducted Sept. 8-10, for example, also showed a close contest, although its reported numbers differed from the SurveyUSA and co/efficient results. Polling methodologies, samples and field dates differ, making direct comparisons between individual surveys imperfect.
The broader pattern is that neither candidate has consistently established a large polling separation in the recent surveys.
That does not mean the race is necessarily changing in one particular direction. Poll-to-poll movement can reflect sampling variation, changes in the electorate being modeled, undecided voters and other methodological differences.
Tafoya Campaign Focuses on Fraud and Government Accountability
Tafoya has made government fraud and accountability central themes of her campaign.
She won the Republican Senate nomination in Minnesota’s Aug. 11 primary and will face Flanagan, who won the Democratic nomination. Tafoya has argued that Minnesota voters are frustrated by alleged fraud involving public programs and has made government spending and accountability prominent campaign issues.
Flanagan, Minnesota’s lieutenant governor, is seeking the Democratic nomination’s open Senate seat following Sen. Tina Smith’s decision not to seek reelection.
The competing messages have placed questions about government spending, the economy and the state’s political leadership among the issues surrounding the contest.
Voters Are Also Weighing Broader National Issues
The co/efficient survey found that government corruption was the most frequently selected top issue, at 24%.
Another 21% selected saving democracy, while 12% chose lowering the cost of living. Cutting taxes and government spending and immigration and border security each received 10%.
The survey also found President Donald Trump’s approval rating in Minnesota at 37%, compared with 55% who disapproved. Those figures provide context for the broader political environment but do not directly determine how voters will behave in the Senate contest.
A Race Still Open to Movement
The newest surveys leave the Minnesota Senate race with relatively little separation between the two major-party candidates.
The SurveyUSA poll recorded a 42%-42% tie, while the subsequent co/efficient survey showed Flanagan ahead by one percentage point. Both results fall within the surveys’ respective margins of error.
At the same time, the exact SurveyUSA result deserves a methodological note: the 42%-42% figure is currently documented by independent polling databases, but the original SurveyUSA material was not readily accessible for direct verification. For that reason, it is best to identify the result by its reported field dates and sample size rather than make stronger claims about the poll’s provenance.
What the Numbers Show
The recent polling points to a Senate race in which Flanagan and Tafoya are currently polling within a few percentage points of one another.
The latest co/efficient survey gives Flanagan a one-point edge, while the SurveyUSA survey conducted just days earlier puts the candidates exactly even. Those results are consistent with a competitive contest but do not establish an eventual winner.
With undecided voters still making up a meaningful portion of the electorate, additional polling and campaign developments will provide more information about how the race is developing as Election Day approaches.
Benjamin Harris is a RapidReports front page contributor and editor,proud father of four.
