New Hampshire Senate Race Moves to Toss Up as Pappas and Sununu Prepare for November Contest
The 2026 New Hampshire Senate race has entered a more competitive phase after the Cook Political Report moved the contest from “Lean Democrat” to “Toss Up” on Sept. 15.
The rating change comes one week after Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas and former Republican Sen. John E. Sununu won their respective party primaries and secured their places on the November ballot. The two candidates are competing for the open seat being vacated by Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen.
Cook’s change reflects the organization’s assessment of a tightening contest. It does not constitute a prediction of the election’s outcome.
Pappas and Sununu Win Their Party Nominations
Pappas won the Democratic nomination on Sept. 8, defeating Karishma Manzur.
Sununu captured the Republican nomination over former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown and several other candidates. Election results reported after the primary showed Sununu with roughly 68% of the Republican vote, while Pappas received roughly 63% in the Democratic contest.
The general election matchup is now set for Nov. 3.
Pappas has represented New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District since 2019 and previously served in state government. Sununu represented New Hampshire in the U.S. Senate from 2003 through 2009 after serving in the U.S. House.
Cook Cites a Closer-Than-Expected Race
In its Sept. 15 analysis, Cook Political Report said public and private polling has shown a closer contest than Democrats initially expected.
The organization also pointed to Sununu’s political standing in New Hampshire and the amount of national Republican attention being directed toward the race as factors behind its decision to move the contest into the Toss Up category.
Cook also noted that the race could move again before Election Day, underscoring that the rating represents a current assessment rather than an election forecast.
Recent Polls Show a Narrow Contest
Polling has produced different results depending on the organization and field dates.
A University of New Hampshire survey conducted in late August found Sununu leading Pappas 45% to 43% among likely voters.
A Saint Anselm College poll conducted earlier in August showed Pappas ahead 48% to 41%.
The most recent survey listed by 270toWin, conducted by co/efficient on Sept. 14, found the two candidates tied at 46% each, with 8% selecting another option or otherwise not supporting either candidate. The poll surveyed 958 likely voters and reported a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.
Taken together, the surveys show a competitive race rather than a consistent advantage for either candidate.
Poll results can differ because of methodology, sampling, field dates and likely-voter models. A polling result also provides a snapshot of voter preferences at the time the survey was conducted and does not determine the eventual result.
Sununu Brings a Familiar Political Name
Sununu enters the general election with an established political profile in New Hampshire.
He previously represented the state in the U.S. Senate and is the son of former New Hampshire Gov. John H. Sununu, who later served as chief of staff to President George H.W. Bush.
His brother, Chris Sununu, served four terms as New Hampshire governor.
The family name has consequently been a prominent part of Republican politics in the state for decades. NHPR noted that John E. Sununu’s political history, along with those of his father and brother, contributes to his name recognition among New Hampshire voters.
Sununu also received President Donald Trump’s endorsement during the Republican primary. At the same time, Sununu has publicly disagreed with Trump on some issues, including the administration’s approach to tariffs and the 2026 military action involving Iran.
Pappas Brings Congressional Experience
Pappas has served four terms in the U.S. House and previously held several positions in New Hampshire government.
His congressional record and political profile have made him a prominent Democratic candidate in the state. He now faces a former senator with his own statewide political history.
Pappas’ primary campaign also received support from prominent national Democrats, including Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, according to NHPR.
The November contest therefore features two candidates who already have substantial political experience and established networks in New Hampshire.
New Hampshire Has a History of Split-Ticket Voting
The state’s political history adds another layer to the race.
New Hampshire voters have frequently divided their choices between parties in statewide and federal elections. Republicans have maintained significant strength in state government, while Democrats have held both U.S. Senate seats in recent years.
The state has also produced several closely contested statewide races.
That history is one reason analysts have continued to treat New Hampshire differently from states where one party has a more consistent advantage in federal elections.
The Open Seat Changes the Dynamic
Shaheen’s retirement means neither candidate is defending an existing Senate seat.
Shaheen, a Democrat, announced that she would not seek another term, creating an open-seat contest in a state where Democrats have held both Senate seats since 2017. Pappas is attempting to retain the seat for Democrats, while Sununu is seeking to return to the Senate after leaving office in 2009.
The race is therefore attracting attention from both national parties as they compete for Senate seats in the 2026 midterms.
Republicans currently hold a Senate majority, while Democrats are seeking to gain seats. The New Hampshire contest is one of several races expected to receive substantial national attention because of its potential importance to the balance of power in Washington.
Campaigns Enter the General Election Phase
With the primaries completed, Pappas and Sununu can now focus entirely on the November contest.
Issues likely to receive attention include the economy, federal spending, taxes, healthcare, immigration, foreign policy and the direction of the federal government.
The candidates have also emphasized different aspects of their political records. Sununu has highlighted his experience and New Hampshire roots, while Pappas has emphasized his congressional record and experience in state and federal government.
National political organizations are also expected to play a significant role through advertising, fundraising and voter outreach.
What the Rating Change Means
The move from “Lean Democrat” to “Toss Up” does not mean that the candidates are mathematically tied or that either candidate has been declared the likely winner.
Instead, it indicates that Cook Political Report now considers the race sufficiently competitive that its current assessment does not place it in a category favoring either party.
The available polling likewise shows a narrow contest, with recent surveys producing different results and the latest co/efficient poll showing the candidates tied.
The Bottom Line
New Hampshire’s Senate race has become one of the more closely watched contests of the 2026 election cycle.
Democrat Chris Pappas and Republican John E. Sununu emerged from their Sept. 8 primaries and will compete for the open seat being vacated by Jeanne Shaheen. Recent polls have shown a competitive race, including a Sept. 14 co/efficient survey that found the candidates tied at 46%.
Cook Political Report’s Sept. 15 decision to move the race from “Lean Democrat” to “Toss Up” reflects that competitive environment. The rating is an assessment of the current state of the contest, not a prediction of who will win on Nov. 3.
Benjamin Harris is a RapidReports front page contributor and editor,proud father of four.
