Susan Collins and Troy Jackson Nearly Even in New Maine Senate Poll
Republican Sen. Susan Collins and Democratic challenger Troy Jackson are essentially tied in a new Quantus Insights survey of Maine voters, with the Republican incumbent holding a narrow numerical advantage that falls well within the poll’s margin of error.
The survey, conducted September 14-15 among 644 likely voters, found 47.1% supporting Collins and 46.4% supporting Jackson on the initial ballot test. Another 1.5% selected someone else, while 5% remained undecided.
Among the 621 respondents who said they intended to vote in the race, the result represents a difference of just 0.7 percentage points. The poll has a margin of error of approximately ±4.3 percentage points, meaning the measured difference is not statistically distinguishable from a tie.
Leaners Narrow the Difference Further
Quantus also asked respondents who were not firmly committed to a candidate to indicate which way they leaned.
With those leaners included, Collins received 47.6% and Jackson 47.4%. Another 1.5% chose someone else, while 3.5% remained undecided.
That produces a difference of only 0.2 percentage points.
The polling firm described the race as essentially even, with demographic differences contributing to contrasting strengths for the two candidates.
Because both results are considerably smaller than the survey’s margin of error, the poll should be read as evidence of a closely divided electorate rather than as establishing a clear statewide lead.
Favorability Ratings Are Also Close
The survey found relatively similar views of both candidates.
Collins was viewed favorably by 46.3% of respondents and unfavorably by 53.0%, producing a net favorability rating of minus 6.7 percentage points.
Jackson was viewed favorably by 45.5% and unfavorably by 50.6%, for a net rating of minus 5.1 points.
The relatively close numbers suggest that neither candidate had a substantially different overall favorability profile in this particular survey.
Different Groups Break Differently
Quantus found meaningful differences across demographic groups.
Collins performed better among men, older voters and rural residents, according to the survey.
Jackson led among women, younger voters and suburban residents.
Those divisions are notable because Maine combines rural communities with population centers and suburban areas, creating different electoral constituencies within the state.
The poll’s overall result, however, remained extremely close because the candidates’ respective advantages among different groups largely offset one another.
Collins Is Defending a Long-Standing Senate Seat
Collins has represented Maine in the Senate since 1997 and is seeking another term.
Her political position is unusual nationally: she is a Republican senator representing a state that has generally favored Democratic presidential candidates in recent decades.
The 2026 race has therefore attracted attention as Democrats attempt to gain Republican-held Senate seats while Republicans seek to protect their existing majority.
Reuters recently identified Maine as one of the contests being watched in the broader fight for Senate control. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to move from the current 53-47 Republican Senate alignment to a majority.
Jackson Became the Democratic Nominee After Platner’s Withdrawal
Jackson, a former president of the Maine Senate, became the Democratic nominee after Graham Platner withdrew from the race in July.
Platner won the Democratic primary in June but ended his campaign after allegations of sexual assault became public. Platner has denied the allegations.
Maine Democrats subsequently selected Jackson at a July convention to replace him on the November ballot. Reuters reported that Jackson won the nomination with overwhelming support from convention delegates.
The change created a substantially different general-election matchup from the one initially expected after the June primary.
Immigration Has Also Entered the Campaign
Immigration enforcement has become another issue in the Maine contest.
Jackson has taken a strong position against Immigration and Customs Enforcement, including support for abolishing the agency. His position received additional attention following a fatal shooting involving an ICE agent in Maine in July.
Collins, meanwhile, has sought to distinguish herself from some Trump administration policies, including its trade approach toward Canada. Maine’s economy has particularly strong connections with its northern neighbor, and Collins has criticized the administration’s tariffs on Canadian goods.
The competing positions give voters several issues on which to compare the candidates beyond the national partisan divide.
Maine Uses Ranked-Choice Voting in Federal Primaries and Some Elections
Maine’s election system also differs from that of most states.
The state uses ranked-choice voting for federal primary elections and for certain federal general-election contests when multiple candidates qualify under state law.
The presence or absence of additional candidates can therefore affect how voters mark their ballots and, where ranked-choice voting applies, whether a contest is decided immediately or proceeds through additional counting rounds.
For the current Collins-Jackson contest, the candidate field remains an important factor to monitor as Election Day approaches.
Quantus Previously Tested the Maine Race
The September survey is the first Quantus public poll specifically testing the Collins-Jackson matchup, according to the information released with the survey.
Earlier in the campaign, Quantus tested Collins against Platner.
That June survey showed Platner at 46% and Collins at 45% among likely voters.
The change in the Democratic nominee means those earlier numbers cannot simply be treated as a trend line for the current race. They involved a different candidate and a different campaign environment.
What the New Poll Shows
The central finding is straightforward: Collins and Jackson are separated by less than one percentage point in the initial ballot test and by two-tenths of a point when leaners are included.
Those differences are substantially smaller than the survey’s ±4.3-point margin of error.
The poll therefore does not establish that either candidate has a statistically significant statewide advantage. Instead, it documents a race in which the two candidates currently have very similar levels of stated support among the surveyed likely voters.
That distinction is important when interpreting individual polls. A small numerical lead inside the margin of error is not the same thing as a statistically established lead.
The November election remains several weeks away, and additional polling will provide further information about whether this close balance persists or changes as the campaign continues.
Benjamin Harris is a RapidReports front page contributor and editor,proud father of four.
