Republican Edges Ahead of Keith Ellison in New Minnesota Attorney General Poll
Republican attorney general candidate Ron Schutz has moved narrowly ahead of Democratic incumbent Keith Ellison in a new Minnesota poll, although the two-point difference remains within the survey’s margin of error.
The KSTP/SurveyUSA poll, conducted September 9-14 among 654 likely voters, found 45% supporting Schutz and 43% supporting Ellison. Another 12% were undecided.
With a credibility interval of approximately ±4.4 percentage points, the results do not establish a statistically clear statewide advantage for either candidate. Instead, the survey shows a closely divided race with a sizable share of voters still undecided.
A Narrow Shift From Earlier Polling
The latest numbers nevertheless represent a change from earlier SurveyUSA measurements.
In the previous survey, Ellison and Schutz were tied. The September poll was the first SurveyUSA survey this cycle to put Schutz numerically ahead, according to reporting on the poll.
The movement is noteworthy because Ellison has led in earlier surveys conducted by the same polling organization. But a two-point difference in a poll with a 4.4-point credibility interval should not be interpreted as proof that the race has definitively shifted toward either candidate.
Minnesota Has Had a Democratic Attorney General for Decades
The race has attracted particular attention because Minnesota has not elected a Republican attorney general since 1970.
Democrat Warren Spannaus took office in 1971 after Republican Douglas M. Head left the position, beginning a decades-long period in which Democrats have held the office.
Ellison has been attorney general since 2019. He won reelection in 2022 by less than one percentage point, making the current contest another closely watched statewide race.
The long Democratic hold on the office provides historical context for the current polling, but it does not determine the result of the 2026 election.
Ellison and Schutz Face a Closely Divided Electorate
The latest poll also shows differences in candidate support by demographic group.
Schutz performs better among men, while Ellison has an advantage among women. The age breakdown also shows movement compared with previous polling, with Schutz performing particularly well among voters ages 50 to 64.
Ellison continues to hold an advantage among younger voters, although the size of that advantage has changed from earlier surveys.
Because demographic samples can carry their own margins of uncertainty, these subgroup results should be interpreted more cautiously than the statewide figures.
The Senate Race Is a Separate Contest
The Newsweek headline can be confusing because Minnesota also has a highly competitive U.S. Senate race this year.
That race is between Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Republican Michele Tafoya, following the retirement of Democratic Sen. Tina Smith.
A separate KSTP/SurveyUSA poll conducted during the same September 9-14 period put Flanagan and Tafoya at 42% each among likely voters.
The attorney general contest involving Ellison and Schutz should therefore not be conflated with the Senate race.
Fraud Has Become a Major Campaign Issue
The attorney general contest is taking place against the backdrop of several high-profile fraud cases involving Minnesota public programs.
Republicans have emphasized allegations of fraud and questions about government oversight during the campaign. Democrats, meanwhile, have focused on the responsibilities and powers of the attorney general’s office as well as broader state and national political issues.
The fraud cases have received substantial political attention, but individual criminal allegations and prosecutions should be distinguished from claims about the candidates’ records or responsibilities.
The attorney general’s office is responsible for enforcing state law and handling a range of civil and criminal matters, but it is not the sole state agency responsible for administering Minnesota’s social-service programs.
The Poll Shows a Race Still Open to Movement
The most important numerical feature of the latest survey is not simply that Schutz is two points ahead. It is that 12% of likely voters remain undecided, a larger share than the two-point difference separating the candidates.
That means the poll captures a competitive race in which a significant group of voters has not yet selected either candidate.
The results are also only a snapshot taken several weeks before Election Day. Polls can change as campaigns increase advertising, candidates debate, voters become more familiar with the nominees and national or state issues receive additional attention.
Other Minnesota Races Are Also Competitive
The KSTP/SurveyUSA survey found movement in several other statewide contests.
Republican Scott Jensen led DFL candidate Zack Filipovich in the state auditor’s race, while Democratic Gov. Amy Klobuchar remained ahead of Republican state House Speaker Lisa Demuth in the governor’s contest. Democratic Secretary of State Steve Simon also maintained a lead over Republican Tad Jude, although that margin had narrowed.
The pattern illustrates why Minnesota’s 2026 statewide elections are receiving increased national attention.
What the Latest Numbers Actually Show
The latest KSTP/SurveyUSA survey provides evidence of a closely contested Minnesota attorney general race, with Schutz at 45% and Ellison at 43%.
But the two-point difference falls inside the poll’s ±4.4-point credibility interval. Consequently, the survey does not establish that Schutz has a statistically significant statewide lead.
What is clear is that the contest is competitive, the incumbent is facing a Republican challenger in a historically Democratic-held office, and a meaningful share of likely voters remains undecided.
Further polling will provide additional information about whether the current balance changes as the November 3 election approaches.
Benjamin Harris is a RapidReports front page contributor and editor,proud father of four.
