Trump Approval Rating Turns Negative Across Most States as Second Term Reaches 20 Months
President Donald Trump’s approval rating has declined substantially across much of the United States as his second term approaches its 20-month mark, according to a state-by-state analysis of Civiqs polling.
The Newsweek analysis, based on Civiqs’ rolling tracking survey of registered voters and data measured around early September, shows Trump with negative net approval in most states. Nationally, 34% of voters approved of his performance while 60% disapproved, producing a net approval rating of -26 percentage points.
The state-level numbers vary sharply. Trump continues to receive positive net approval in several heavily Republican states, while approval is substantially lower in many Democratic-leaning states and negative across the major presidential battlegrounds.
The figures describe public sentiment at a particular point in time. They do not predict the results of the 2026 midterm elections.
Wyoming Has Trump’s Highest Net Approval
Wyoming recorded the strongest net approval rating in the Civiqs data, at +15 percentage points.
West Virginia followed at +13, while North Dakota stood at +10. Alabama was at +5, with Idaho and South Dakota each at +4.
Even in those states, however, Trump’s numbers were considerably lower than they had been when he returned to the White House in January 2025.
For example, Wyoming’s net approval fell from +47 at the beginning of Trump’s second term to +15 in the September measurement. West Virginia declined from +35 to +13, while North Dakota moved from +34 to +10.
The changes illustrate that Trump’s approval has not remained static even in states where Republican candidates have traditionally performed strongly.
Trump Is Underwater in Major Battleground States
The state-by-state data also shows negative net approval in every major swing state included in the analysis.
The September figures were:
- Arizona: -18
- Florida: -13
- Georgia: -25
- Nevada: -25
- North Carolina: -18
- Ohio: -19
- Pennsylvania: -20
- Wisconsin: -19
Several of those states experienced substantial changes compared with the beginning of Trump’s second term.
Florida, for example, moved from +9 net approval in January 2025 to -13. Ohio shifted from +8 to -19, while Nevada moved from 0 to -25. North Carolina went from 0 to -18.
These figures show changes in presidential approval, not changes in candidate support in individual congressional or statewide races.
Some Republican-Leaning States Have Also Seen Large Declines
One notable feature of the Civiqs data is that some of the largest declines occurred in states that have historically voted Republican.
Kentucky moved from +23 net approval at the beginning of Trump’s second term to -11, a 34-point decline.
Oklahoma moved from +31 to +2, while Texas fell from +6 to -20. Iowa declined from +6 to -18.
The figures indicate that Trump’s approval has weakened from his early second-term levels in both competitive states and some states that have generally been more supportive of Republican presidential candidates.
That does not necessarily mean voters in those states have changed their party identification or their preferences in specific elections.
Democratic States Remain Trump’s Weakest Territory
The lowest net approval ratings were concentrated in states that have generally supported Democratic presidential candidates.
Maryland recorded a net approval rating of -54, followed by Vermont at -53 and Massachusetts at -49.
California was at -45, Connecticut at -44, and Washington at -42. New York and Oregon each registered -41.
Trump’s approval was already deeply negative in many of these states when he began his second term, making the numbers different from the larger shifts seen in some Republican-leaning states.
Younger Voters and Independents Show High Levels of Disapproval
The Civiqs tracking data also shows substantial differences among demographic groups.
Among voters ages 18 to 34, 21% approved of Trump’s job performance while 72% disapproved. Among voters ages 35 to 49, approval was 27% and disapproval was 64%.
Independents were similarly negative, with 27% approving and 65% disapproving.
Women registered 29% approval and 65% disapproval, while men were somewhat less negative, with 39% approving and 54% disapproving.
Education also remained associated with different approval levels. Among voters with postgraduate education, 23% approved and 72% disapproved. Among voters without a college degree, approval was higher at 37%, although disapproval remained higher.
Approval Has Fallen Across the Entire State Map
According to the Newsweek analysis, every state in the Civiqs tracker had a lower net approval rating in the September measurement than when Trump returned to office on Jan. 20, 2025.
The size of the change varied considerably.
Kentucky’s 34-point decline was among the largest. Wyoming fell 32 points, from +47 to +15. Oklahoma declined 29 points, while Ohio dropped 27 points and Texas declined 26 points.
Nevada’s net rating fell 25 points, while Iowa and Florida declined 24 and 22 points respectively.
The data therefore reflects not simply a continuation of the partisan map that existed at the beginning of Trump’s second term, but considerable movement within that map.
National Approval Is Also Below Trump’s Early Second-Term Levels
The state numbers correspond with a broader decline in Trump’s national approval rating.
The Civiqs-based analysis placed his national net approval at -26 in early September, compared with a substantially better position at the start of his second term.
Other polling organizations have also recorded negative approval ratings.
A Reuters/Ipsos survey conducted Sept. 11-13 found 35% approving of Trump’s job performance and 62% disapproving. That poll surveyed 1,143 Americans and had a margin of error of approximately three percentage points.
Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin average, updated Sept. 18, placed Trump’s net approval at approximately -19.5 percentage points, illustrating how estimates can differ depending on the polls included and the methodology used to combine them.
Differences among polling averages and individual surveys are normal because pollsters use different samples, methodologies, weighting systems and field dates.
What the Numbers Mean for the 2026 Political Environment
Presidential approval ratings are frequently examined during midterm years because they provide a broad measure of how voters view the president’s job performance.
But approval is not the same thing as a vote for a congressional candidate.
The 2026 elections will be determined by individual races across congressional districts and states, each with its own candidates, issues and electorate. National and state approval figures can provide context for those contests without determining their outcomes.
The Civiqs map therefore offers a snapshot of Trump’s standing roughly 20 months into his second term rather than a forecast of what voters will do in November.
For now, the data shows a sharply divided country: Trump retains positive net approval in several strongly Republican states, while his approval is negative across the major battlegrounds and deeply negative in many Democratic-leaning states.
As additional polling is released, those numbers could change before voters cast their ballots in the 2026 midterm elections.
Benjamin Harris is a RapidReports front page contributor and editor,proud father of four.
