A recent survey from Emerson College found Republican candidate Steve Hilton leading California’s crowded gubernatorial primary field. The poll of 1,000 likely voters, conducted February 13–14, showed Hilton with 17 percent support. Eric Swalwell followed at 14 percent, tied with former Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco. The results highlight a competitive race shaped in part by California’s unique primary system.
Other Democratic candidates polled in the survey included former Rep. Katie Porter at 10 percent and investor Tom Steyer at 9 percent, while 21 percent of respondents said they remain undecided. According to Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball, the distribution of support among multiple Democratic candidates could influence which two contenders ultimately advance to the general election.
California uses a nonpartisan “top-two” primary system established by Proposition 14 in 2010. Under this format, all candidates appear on the same ballot, and the two candidates receiving the most votes — regardless of party — move on to the November election. This structure can result in two candidates from the same party facing each other if vote totals align that way.
Hilton, a former host of The Next Revolution and onetime adviser to former UK Prime Minister David Cameron, launched his campaign in April 2025. He has emphasized affordability issues, including housing and homelessness. With a large Democratic field that also includes candidates such as Xavier Becerra, Matt Mahan, and Antonio Villaraigosa, the race remains fluid. Aggregated polling averages indicate a closely contested primary as candidates compete for a place in the general election.