James Talarico and Ken Paxton Deadlocked in New Texas Senate Poll
The Texas Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton remains closely divided in the latest statewide polling, with the two candidates separated by just one percentage point.
A new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey conducted Sept. 12-14 found 47% of likely voters supporting Talarico and 46% supporting Paxton. Four percent were undecided, while 2% backed Libertarian candidate Ted Brown.
Because the poll’s credibility interval is plus or minus 3 percentage points, the results indicate a close contest rather than a statistically clear difference between the two candidates.
New Poll Shows Little Movement
The September Emerson survey found relatively little change from the organization’s August polling.
Talarico’s support increased by one percentage point, while Paxton’s fell by one point. The resulting 47%-46% split leaves the race within the poll’s stated range of uncertainty.
The survey included 1,000 likely Texas voters and was weighted according to demographic and regional characteristics using Census and voter-file data.
Polling results can vary depending on methodology, field dates and the voters included in the sample. They therefore provide a measurement of opinion when the survey was conducted rather than a determination of the eventual election result.
Other Recent Polls Also Show a Close Race
The Emerson survey is part of a series of recent polls showing a competitive contest.
A Mason-Dixon Polling & Research survey conducted Sept. 8-10 found Talarico leading Paxton 46% to 43%, with Libertarian Ted Brown at 3% and 8% undecided. That survey of 625 likely voters had a margin of error of approximately 4 percentage points.
An earlier Texas Public Opinion Research survey conducted in July showed Talarico at 45% and Paxton at 40%, although that poll had a different methodology and field period.
The Texas Tribune’s polling tracker has described the contest as closely divided and cautioned that polling averages are not forecasts of the election outcome.
Talarico’s Support Among Hispanic Voters
One of the more significant demographic findings comes from a separate Cook Political Report/TelevisaUnivision survey of Hispanic likely voters.
That survey, conducted Aug. 26 through Sept. 3, found Talarico receiving 63% support among Hispanic likely voters, compared with 30% for Paxton. The survey included 1,000 Hispanic likely voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
The survey also found that the economy was the leading issue among Hispanic voters, ahead of immigration and other issues.
Demographic subgroup results should be interpreted with additional caution because their sample sizes are smaller than the full statewide sample.
Paxton’s Republican Base
Paxton is the Republican nominee after defeating incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the party’s May runoff.
The Republican campaign has emphasized economic issues and conservative policies while seeking to consolidate Republican voters for the general election.
Paxton also received significant attention during the Republican midterm convention in Dallas earlier this month. President Donald Trump criticized aspects of Paxton’s presentation and appearance during the event but also praised his record as Texas attorney general.
Trump’s MAGA Inc. super PAC has also provided financial support to Paxton’s campaign, according to Federal Election Commission filings cited by KERA.
Talarico’s Position in the Race
Talarico, a Democratic state representative from the Austin area, won his party’s nomination and now faces Paxton in the November general election.
The Texas Tribune reported that Talarico has performed competitively in several polls since the Republican runoff, including a July survey in which he led Paxton by five percentage points.
The latest Emerson survey, however, shows a much narrower difference.
Talarico was viewed favorably by 48% of respondents and unfavorably by 42%. Paxton’s favorable rating was 40%, while 48% viewed him unfavorably.
The Economy Is the Top Issue
Economic concerns appear to be particularly important to Texas voters in the latest Emerson survey.
Thirty-six percent of respondents identified the economy as the state’s most important issue, up six percentage points from the previous Emerson poll.
Immigration followed at 14%, education at 12%, health care at 11% and threats to democracy at 11%.
The poll found that Republicans and Democrats were broadly similar in identifying the economy as the state’s leading issue, although independents placed somewhat less emphasis on it.
A Closely Watched Senate Contest
The race is receiving national attention because Texas is one of the country’s largest states and because Democrats have not won a statewide Texas election since 1994.
The Texas Tribune has described the Senate contest as one of the most closely watched and expensive races of the 2026 cycle.
The general election is scheduled for Nov. 3, 2026, with early voting in Texas scheduled to begin Oct. 19.
The Senate contest pits Talarico against Paxton for the seat currently held by Republican John Cornyn.
What the New Poll Means
The latest Emerson survey places Talarico at 47% and Paxton at 46%, with the difference falling within the poll’s stated credibility interval.
Other recent surveys have also shown relatively narrow margins, although the exact numbers differ from one poll to another.
The results highlight a race in which both candidates have substantial support but neither reaches 50% in the latest survey. With undecided voters still in the electorate and several weeks remaining before Election Day, the polling provides a snapshot of the Texas electorate rather than a determination of who will ultimately win.
For voters and observers, the most useful context is therefore the combination of multiple surveys, their methodologies and the issues driving different groups of Texas voters—not any single poll viewed in isolation.
Benjamin Harris is a RapidReports front page contributor and editor,proud father of four.
