Abdul El-Sayed Holds Narrow Lead Over Mike Rogers in Latest Michigan Senate Polls
Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed holds a narrow lead over Republican Mike Rogers in two September surveys of Michigan voters, with the latest polling showing a closely contested race as the 2026 midterm campaign moves toward November.
A Fox News poll released Sept. 30 found El-Sayed ahead of Rogers by 50% to 49% among likely voters. The one-point margin is well within the survey’s ±3 percentage-point margin of sampling error, underscoring how close the contest remains.
A separate Big Data Poll conducted Sept. 22-24 found a wider Democratic advantage. El-Sayed led Rogers 45.9% to 40.5% among likely voters on the initial ballot. After undecided voters were asked which candidate they leaned toward, El-Sayed’s advantage stood at 46.7% to 42.1%.
The surveys differ in methodology and sample composition, so their results should not be treated as directly interchangeable. Together, however, they illustrate a race in which the candidates remain within relatively close reach of one another.
Fox News Poll Shows a One-Point Difference
The Fox News survey interviewed 1,203 registered Michigan voters, including 1,028 classified as likely voters, between Sept. 24 and 28.
Among likely voters, El-Sayed received 50% support compared with 49% for Rogers. Because the difference is smaller than the poll’s margin of sampling error, the result does not establish a statistically significant lead.
The registered-voter results were somewhat different, with El-Sayed leading 51% to 48%.
That represented a change from Fox News’ August survey of registered voters, when Rogers led El-Sayed 51% to 47%. The August and September surveys also used different voter universes, meaning the results should be compared with some caution.
The latest poll found that El-Sayed’s supporters were somewhat more likely to say their choice was settled. Eighty-seven percent of his backers said they were certain of their vote, compared with 80% of Rogers supporters.
At the same time, 18% of Rogers supporters said they could still change their minds, compared with 12% of El-Sayed supporters.
Big Data Poll Shows a Wider Democratic Margin
The Big Data Poll produced a different picture.
Among likely voters, El-Sayed initially received 45.9% support, compared with 40.5% for Rogers. After undecided voters were asked which candidate they leaned toward, the figures moved to 46.7% for El-Sayed and 42.1% for Rogers.
The survey included 678 likely voters and reported a ±4 percentage-point sampling error. It was conducted online and through live-agent telephone interviews from Sept. 22 through Sept. 24.
Among registered voters, El-Sayed led the initial ballot test 44.3% to 39.0%.
The difference between the Big Data Poll and the Fox News survey illustrates why individual polls can produce substantially different snapshots of the same contest. Sampling methods, likely-voter models, question wording and field dates can all affect the results.
Cost of Living Is a Central Issue
Economic concerns are playing a major role in the Michigan campaign.
The Fox News poll found that roughly seven in 10 likely voters considered the cost of living extremely important to their Senate vote. Voters who placed the greatest emphasis on that issue favored El-Sayed by 13 percentage points.
The survey also found a significant economic divide among voters. About four in 10 respondents said they were falling behind financially, and those voters favored El-Sayed by 25 points.
Nearly half said their families were financially holding steady. That group favored Rogers by 13 points, while voters who said they were getting ahead financially preferred Rogers by 36 points.
The economic issue has consequently become an important part of both campaigns’ messaging.
El-Sayed’s Economic Message
El-Sayed has campaigned on an economic-populist platform that includes support for Medicare for All, stronger labor protections and tougher antitrust enforcement.
His campaign has also emphasized reducing the influence of corporate money in politics and presenting the election as a contest between ordinary voters and wealthy interests.
The Democrat emerged from a competitive primary in August, defeating Rep. Haley Stevens for the nomination.
The Fox News poll suggests that unifying Democrats remains an important part of his general-election coalition. Eleven percent of likely voters who supported Stevens in the Democratic primary said they planned to vote for Rogers in November.
El-Sayed nevertheless receives strong support from Democratic voters overall, with 93% of Democrats in the Fox survey backing him.
Rogers Campaigns on Costs, Manufacturing and Trump Alignment
Rogers, a former congressman and former chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, is running on a conservative platform focused on manufacturing, public safety, economic costs and the idea of preserving the American Dream.
He has also aligned himself with President Donald Trump, an association that is both a source of Republican support and a point of criticism from Democrats.
In the Fox News survey, 39% of Michigan likely voters said they were extremely concerned that Rogers was too close to Trump. At the same time, 36% said they were extremely concerned that El-Sayed’s views were too liberal.
The poll also found that Trump remained an important factor in the Senate contest. Half of Michigan voters said Trump was extremely important to their Senate vote, and that group favored El-Sayed by 22 percentage points.
Rogers has also sought to make household expenses a central campaign issue. In a September campaign message, he argued that Michigan families were struggling with the cost of everyday goods and called for lower prices.
Party Control Is Another Factor
The Fox News survey found that likely voters preferred Democratic control of the Senate by 52% to 47%.
That gives the broader partisan environment another important dimension in the Michigan contest. However, the Senate preference question does not determine how individual voters will cast their ballots in the state’s Senate race.
Michigan remains a closely divided political state. Trump won Michigan in the 2024 presidential election by less than two percentage points, while Rogers narrowly lost his 2024 Senate race to Democrat Elissa Slotkin.
Voters Are Also Weighing the Candidates’ Broader Records
The race extends beyond economic issues.
Fox News found El-Sayed performing particularly well among voters under 45, women, Black voters and college graduates, while Rogers had stronger support among men, rural voters, White evangelical Christians, married voters and White voters without college degrees.
The survey also found issue-specific differences. El-Sayed held advantages among voters prioritizing the cost of living, U.S. policy toward Israel and artificial intelligence, while Rogers held a substantial advantage among voters who identified immigration as their most important issue.
Separate reporting by Reuters has highlighted the competing campaign strategies. Republicans have sought to portray El-Sayed as too far to the left, while Democrats have emphasized economic concerns and grassroots organizing.
What the September Polls Show
The latest surveys provide two different measurements of the same underlying contest.
Fox News: El-Sayed 50%, Rogers 49% among likely voters.
Big Data Poll: El-Sayed 45.9%, Rogers 40.5% among likely voters before leaners; 46.7% to 42.1% after leaners were included.
The Fox result is effectively a statistical tie because its one-point difference is smaller than the poll’s margin of error. The Big Data Poll shows a larger Democratic advantage but also carries a wider margin of sampling error.
Neither survey can determine the outcome of the November election.
What they do show is a Michigan Senate contest in which economic concerns, partisan loyalty, Trump’s standing in the state, candidate image and turnout are all potentially important factors. With voters still able to change their minds and multiple issues competing for attention, the final weeks of the campaign are likely to remain closely watched.
Benjamin Harris is a RapidReports front page contributor and editor,proud father of four.
